California declared a statewide emergency as NOAA forecast a very strong El Niño this winter.
Why it matters: The outlook raises the risk of flooding, landslides, coastal erosion and power disruptions across a major economy. It also matters for insurance pricing, infrastructure readiness and local emergency spending.
- Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide emergency on Sept. 21, 2026, to speed El Niño preparations.
- NOAA said Sept. 10 that El Niño was strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event in fall and winter 2026-27.
- NOAA also put the odds of a historic event at 75% for October-December 2026.
- California's Department of Insurance warned Aug. 7 that severe flooding and strong storms are pressuring the insurance market.
California is moving early to prepare for a stronger-than-normal El Niño season. On Sept. 21, Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide emergency to help agencies protect communities, roads, critical infrastructure and emergency supplies ahead of winter storms. The governor's office said the event was already breaking records and could become the strongest in recorded history.
The emergency declaration is meant to speed readiness across California, which faces flooding, landslides, coastal erosion and utility disruptions during intense winter weather. The California Office of Emergency Services listed an open statewide emergency for the 2026-2027 El Niño on Sept. 21. State records show the declaration is active.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on Sept. 10 that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. NOAA also said there was a 75% chance of a historic event exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 in October-December 2026. NOAA's advisory and seasonal outlook favored above-normal precipitation in the southern half of California.
California's Department of Insurance warned Aug. 7 that severe flooding and strong storms are making it harder for insurers to predict risks and maintain stable, affordable coverage. The regulator's alert framed the threat as both a weather and market issue.
By the numbers
- more than 90% - NOAA's chance of a very strong El Niño in fall and winter 2026-27
- 75% - NOAA's chance of a historic event in October-December 2026
Yes, but: NOAA's forecast describes elevated odds, not a certainty, and the severity of California's impacts will still depend on how the weather pattern develops.
What's next: NOAA's fall and winter 2026-27 outlooks remain the key near-term watch point.