A Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by four points.
Why it matters: The result offers a snapshot of the runoff after a first round decided by a narrow margin. Campaigns will focus on voters from eliminated candidates and turnout ahead of October 25.
- Flávio leads Lula 52%-48% among valid votes and 49%-45% in total responses.
- Datafolha surveyed 2,520 voters in 153 municipalities on October 6-7, with a stated two-point margin of error.
- Flávio won the October 4 first round with 47.03% of valid votes, compared with Lula's 45.16%.
- Among voters who backed eliminated candidates, 46% favor Flávio and 32% favor Lula.
A Datafolha poll commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52%-48% among valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff.
In total responses, Flávio leads 49%-45%. Another 5% say they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot, while 1% are undecided. The poll was registered with the Superior Electoral Court as BR-02949/2026.
The survey covered 2,520 voters in 153 municipalities on October 6-7. Its stated margin of error is two percentage points. The four-point candidate gap should therefore be treated as a lead within the poll's stated uncertainty, not as definitive evidence of movement. The supplied materials do not specify whether that margin applies to valid-vote estimates, total responses or both.
The poll was conducted after the October 4 first round and is not directly comparable with a Datafolha simulation conducted October 2-3, before voting. That earlier simulation showed Lula at 47% and Flávio at 46%, a statistical tie.
Flávio finished ahead in the first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. The runoff is scheduled for October 25.
Flávio performed strongest in the South, among evangelical voters and among people earning two to five minimum wages. Lula led among poorer voters, Catholics and voters in the Northeast. Among supporters of eliminated candidates, 46% favor Flávio, 32% Lula and 15% a blank or spoiled ballot.
Turnout remains a key variable: more than 33 million voters, about 21% of the electorate, abstained in the first round, the Associated Press reported.
By the numbers
- 52%-48% - Flávio's lead over Lula among valid votes in the poll
- 2,520 - Voters surveyed across 153 municipalities
- 33 million - Voters who abstained in the first round, about 21% of the electorate
Yes, but: The supplied materials provide one linked report for the poll result; they do not include a second independent source corroborating the 52%-48% result or its demographic breakdown. The poll is a snapshot, not an election forecast, and the stated margin of error limits what can be concluded from the four-point gap.
What's next: Brazil's presidential runoff is scheduled for October 25.