Quaest gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 51%-49% edge over Lula among valid votes.
Why it matters: The reported two-point gap falls within the poll's margin of error and does not establish a statistically significant lead. The dossier does not support candidate-specific policy or market forecasts, but the result could shape Brazil's institutions and political stability.
- Quaest's valid-vote measure gives Flávio Bolsonaro 51% and Lula 49%.
- The poll reports a two-percentage-point margin of error; the dossier does not specify whether it applies separately to the valid-vote and total-vote measures.
- In the total-vote measure, Flávio leads 46%-45%; 8% report blank, invalid or abstention responses and 1% is undecided.
- The presidential runoff is set for October 25, 2026, after Flávio won the first round 47.03%-45.16%.
Brazil's final Genial/Quaest poll before the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff gives Flávio Bolsonaro a narrow numerical lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 51% to 49% among valid votes. Folha reported the figures.
The reported two-point gap falls within the poll's two-percentage-point margin of error, so it does not establish a statistically significant lead. The dossier does not specify whether that margin applies separately to the valid-vote and total-vote measures.
In the total-vote measure, Flávio leads 46% to 45%. Eight percent report that they will vote blank, cast an invalid ballot or abstain, while 1% is undecided. The materials do not explain whether undecided responses were excluded, allocated or otherwise treated when the valid-vote percentages were calculated.
Quaest conducted 3,702 in-person interviews with voters aged 16 or older across Brazil on October 23-24, at a 95% confidence level. TV Globo commissioned the poll, which was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-09158/2026. UOL published the methodology and additional results.
Flávio's rejection rate is 49%, compared with 47% for Lula. Ninety-two percent of declared voters say their choice is definite, while 8% say they could change it.
Flávio won the first round with 47.03% of valid votes, against Lula's 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court.
By the numbers
- 3,702 - in-person interviews conducted on October 23-24
- 2 percentage points - reported margin of error
- 95% - confidence level
Yes, but: The poll is a snapshot, and its reported lead is within the margin of error. The dossier also does not provide the original pollster release or registration filing, or detail how undecided responses were handled in the valid-vote calculation.
What's next: Brazil's presidential runoff is scheduled for October 25, 2026.