Goldman raised its 2026 U.S. investment-grade gross credit supply forecast to $2.3 trillion from $2.1 trillion.
Why it matters: More AI-linked borrowing can push up supply, affect spreads and raise issuance costs for corporate borrowers. Credit investors are also facing a market where demand must absorb faster-than-expected debt growth.
- Goldman lifted its 2026 U.S. dollar investment-grade gross credit supply forecast to $2.3 trillion from $2.1 trillion.
- The bank raised its 2026 net supply forecast to $1.0 trillion from $850 billion.
- Goldman said AI-related issuance helped keep investment-grade borrowing active through the summer, when supply often slows.
- Goldman estimated nearly $500 billion of AI-related debt had already been raised in 2026 as of early August.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 U.S. investment-grade credit supply forecast, saying AI-related borrowing is keeping debt markets busier than expected. The bank now sees gross supply at $2.3 trillion, up from a prior estimate of $2.1 trillion, according to a report by CNBC.
Goldman also lifted its net supply forecast to $1.0 trillion from $850 billion. The bank said AI issuance helped sustain investment-grade supply through the summer, a period when corporate bond issuance often slows.
In a separate Goldman research note, strategist Amanda Lynam said the AI buildout is becoming a multi-year credit-market theme as capex moves closer to cash flow from operations. She said, "It’s hard to overstate the importance of this theme in the credit markets." Goldman Sachs
Goldman estimated nearly $500 billion of AI-related debt had been raised in 2026 as of early August. It also said hyperscalers issued $194 billion of debt globally through early August, compared with $108 billion in all of 2025, and projected hyperscaler debt financing at about $250 billion for 2026.
Outside Goldman, Reuters reported on Aug. 21 that the AI debt surge was testing investor demand as buyers sought higher yields to absorb the growing supply. Reuters
By the numbers
- $2.3 trillion - Goldman’s new 2026 U.S. investment-grade gross credit supply forecast.
- $500 billion - Goldman’s estimate of AI-related debt raised in 2026 as of early August.
- $194 billion - Hyperscaler debt issued globally through early August, versus $108 billion in all of 2025.
Yes, but: The forecast still rests heavily on Goldman’s own research, and the AI funding picture could shift if issuance slows or investor demand weakens.
What's next: Market focus now turns to whether AI-related issuance keeps pace into the fall and whether spreads widen as supply stays elevated.