The Magnificent Seven's stock correlations have weakened to decade lows, according to CNBC.
Why it matters: Investors may need to assess the megacaps more individually rather than treat them as one AI-driven trade. But correlation measures use different windows and dates, so they do not prove a clean break-up of the group.
- CNBC's rolling 60-trading-day analysis covers all 21 unique pairs among the seven stocks.
- State Street measured average three-month pairwise correlation at 0.27 on July 10, 2026; Neuberger reported a six-month average of 25% in early May 2026.
- The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF was up 7% year to date versus 12% for the S&P 500 as of October 28, 2026, according to CNBC.
- J.P. Morgan said the seven stocks contributed 34% of the S&P 500's return through September 30, down from 63% in 2023.
Data snapshot: October 28, 2026. The Magnificent Seven is showing more varied stock behavior, but the available correlation measures cover different periods and should not be treated as directly interchangeable.
CNBC's analysis of rolling 60-trading-day correlations across Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla found that average pairwise correlation had reached its lowest level in more than a decade. The analysis covers all 21 unique pairs among the seven stocks.
Other measures point to weaker co-movement. State Street Global Advisors reported an average three-month pairwise correlation of 0.27 on July 10, 2026. Neuberger said its six-month average had fallen to 25% in early May 2026, from 75% in early 2023.
The dispersion is also visible in performance. CNBC reported that the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF was up 7% year to date, versus 12% for the S&P 500, as of October 28, 2026. The different business questions facing the companies include Azure growth at Microsoft, cloud and AI developments at Alphabet and Amazon, chip demand at Nvidia, consumer AI adoption at Meta, devices and services at Apple, and robotics and autonomy at Tesla.
“All have different exposures to AI,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria told CNBC. He said the shift requires “a much more granular approach” to selecting megacap stocks. State Street said the group's heterogeneity is inconsistent with a basket-based approach.
The divergence does not eliminate concentration risk. J.P. Morgan Asset Management reported that the seven stocks contributed 34% of the S&P 500's total return through September 30, 2026, down from 63% in 2023. That is a contribution to index performance, not the group's market-capitalization weight. Separately, the 10 largest S&P 500 companies accounted for 40.6% of the index by market capitalization as of September 30, 2026.
By the numbers
- 0.27 - State Street's average three-month pairwise correlation on July 10, 2026
- 7% vs. 12% - Year-to-date return for the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF and the S&P 500, respectively, as of October 28, 2026
- 34% - The seven stocks' contribution to the S&P 500's return through September 30, 2026, according to J.P. Morgan
Yes, but: The evidence comes from correlation measures with different lookback windows and endpoints, so it supports greater dispersion but not a directly comparable or definitive break-up of the group.