U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded.
Why it matters: The weak employment report could support expectations for a Federal Reserve pause at its October 27-28 meeting, but that is an analyst interpretation, not a stated Fed signal. Treasury yields remain a key input for borrowing costs and asset valuations.
- September payrolls rose by 29,000, versus a 45,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.
- Revisions cut combined July and August payroll growth by 60,000.
- The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell below 5.17% before rebounding to about 5.28%.
- The Fed will release minutes from its September meeting at 2 p.m. Eastern on October 7, 2026.
U.S. stock futures were little changed early Monday, October 5, 2026, as investors assessed Treasury yields and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its October 27-28 meeting, according to CNBC's market update.
The employment report released Friday showed 29,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs in September and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. The increase was below the 45,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.
Revisions made earlier months weaker. July payroll growth changed from an increase of 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August growth was revised from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, those changes reduced reported employment growth by 60,000.
The revisions and modest September gain may reinforce expectations for a policy pause, but the report does not establish the Fed's next decision. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September and were up 3.0% from a year earlier.
The 10-year Treasury yield initially fell below 5.17% after the report and later rebounded to approximately 5.28%, according to an Associated Press market report. The yield had approached 5.35% on October 1, AP reported.
U.S. stocks rallied Friday after the jobs report. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2%, the Associated Press reported.
The Federal Reserve's October 2026 calendar lists the release of minutes from its September 15-16 meeting for 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 7, 2026. The minutes summarize policymakers' discussions of economic and financial developments, according to the Fed's explanation of FOMC minutes.
By the numbers
- 29,000 - September nonfarm payroll gain
- 60,000 - Combined downward revision to July and August payroll growth
- 5.28% - Approximate 10-year Treasury yield after its rebound
Yes, but: The jobs report may bolster expectations for a pause, but it does not determine the Fed's decision. The 10-year yield also moved higher after its initial decline, underscoring the market's continued sensitivity to rates.
What's next: The Fed will publish its September meeting minutes at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 7, 2026. Its next meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, 2026.