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UK August borrowing tops forecasts, raising October Budget pressure

UK August borrowing tops forecasts, raising October Budget pressure
Photo: bbc.co.uk

UK public borrowing hit £18.3 billion in August, £3.5 billion above the OBR forecast.

Why it matters: The higher borrowing figure leaves Chancellor Rachel Reeves with less room before the forthcoming 28 October Budget. That can mean more pressure for tax rises, spending restraint or both if she wants to stay on course.

  • Public sector borrowing was £18.3 billion in August 2026, £3.5 billion above the OBR forecast.
  • Borrowing in the financial year to August reached £77.3 billion, £8.1 billion above forecast but £2.2 billion lower than a year earlier.
  • Public sector net debt ended August just below £3 trillion, though lower as a share of GDP than a year earlier.
  • The government has confirmed the 2026 Budget will be on Wednesday 28 October.

The Office for National Statistics said public sector borrowing was £18.3 billion in August 2026, above the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast and above the August 2025 reading.

That matters because the OBR's projections are the benchmark the Treasury will use when it sets policy for the 28 October Budget. A bigger-than-expected borrowing bill usually leaves less headroom for pre-election giveaways or extra spending.

For the financial year to August, borrowing reached £77.3 billion. That was lower than the same period a year earlier, but still £8.1 billion above the OBR forecast.

The ONS said higher receipts were not enough to offset higher spending, and that borrowing was above forecast mainly because central government and public corporations borrowed more than expected.

Debt remained just below £3 trillion at the end of August, although it was lower as a share of GDP than a year earlier.

By the numbers

  • £18.3 billion - public sector borrowing in August 2026
  • £77.3 billion - borrowing in the financial year to August 2026
  • Just below £3 trillion - public sector net debt at the end of August

Yes, but: The August figures do not by themselves determine the Budget outcome, since the OBR's full forecast and any policy changes will shape the final fiscal room.

What's next: The UK government's Autumn Budget is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October 2026.

Based on reporting from

  • BBC Business

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