The UK economy grew 0.4% in July 2026, outpacing forecasts for no growth.
Why it matters: The upside surprise may make markets less confident about near-term Bank of England rate cuts, even as policymakers weigh inflation and slower underlying momentum.
- The Office for National Statistics said UK GDP rose 0.4% in July 2026, after no growth in June.
- Economists had expected flat growth in July, according to the consensus cited in the brief.
- The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July 2026.
- The ONS released the July GDP monthly estimate on 11 September 2026 at 7:00am.
The Office for National Statistics said the UK economy expanded 0.4% in July 2026, beating economists' expectations for flat growth. The report pointed to gains in services and production, and it followed a 0.1% fall in June, reversing that weakness at the start of the summer.
The ONS says its monthly GDP estimate is the UK's most timely official measure of growth, but it also warns that monthly readings can be volatile and should be used with caution alongside other indicators.
The July data came after the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, citing inflation at 2.6% and warning it could rise later in 2026 because of higher energy prices.
In its July Monetary Policy Report, the central bank said its central projection showed spare capacity widening slightly and four-quarter GDP growth at 1.6% by the end of the forecast period.
The July GDP release was published on 11 September 2026 at 7:00am, according to the ONS announcement.
By the numbers
- 0.4% - UK GDP growth in July 2026
- 0.0% - Economists' expected July growth
- 3.75% - Bank Rate after the Bank of England's July 2026 decision
Yes, but: Monthly GDP can be noisy, and the ONS cautions against reading too much into a single print.