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UK pay growth cools to 4.1% as unemployment holds at 4.9%

UK pay growth cools to 4.1% as unemployment holds at 4.9%
Photo: theguardian.com

ONS said UK pay growth cooled to 4.1% in the three months to May, while unemployment stayed at 4.9%.

Why it matters: Slower wage growth can ease inflation pressure and influence Bank of England rate decisions. The data points to a labour market that is cooling without a sharp rise in joblessness.

  • UK total pay growth, including bonuses, slowed to 4.1% in the three months to May from 4.3% in the previous three months.
  • Unemployment held at 4.9% in the three months to the end of May.
  • Regular pay growth was 3.4% in March to May, while private sector regular pay growth was 2.8% and public sector pay growth was 6.1%.
  • The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in June and said unemployment was likely to rise gradually.

The latest labour-market release from the Office for National Statistics showed UK pay growth cooling while unemployment remained unchanged.

ONS said average total earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed to 4.1% in the three months to May from 4.3% in the previous three months. Unemployment stayed at 4.9% over the same period.

The same bulletin put regular pay growth at 3.4% in March to May. Private sector regular pay growth was 2.8%, while public sector regular pay growth was 6.1%.

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in June and said unemployment was likely to rise gradually. In its July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected unemployment would rise to 5.0% in 2026 Q3 and 5.1% in Q4.

Vacancies also pointed to softer labour demand. ONS said estimated vacancies were down 18,000, or 2.5%, from a year earlier. The statistics office said some small firms may not be recruiting because of higher labour and operating costs. ONS vacancies data

By the numbers

  • 4.1% - UK total pay growth in the three months to May, down from 4.3% in the previous three months
  • 4.9% - unemployment rate in the three months to the end of May
  • 18,000 - annual decline in estimated vacancies, equal to 2.5%

Based on reporting from

  • The Guardian

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