John Williams says one more Fed hike may be appropriate in 2026.
Why it matters: Williams’ conditional view could influence expectations for borrowing costs, Treasury yields, equity valuations and the dollar. It is his individual outlook, not an FOMC decision or the Fed’s official policy-rate projection.
- Williams said on October 13, 2026, that one additional rate increase could be appropriate in 2026.
- He said he currently saw no reason for another hike in 2027, while leaving room for incoming data to change his outlook.
- The Fed’s target range is 3.75%-4.00% after a 25-basis-point increase in September 2026.
- September FOMC projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027.
New York Federal Reserve President John C. Williams reiterated on October 13, 2026, that one more rate hike could be appropriate in 2026, but said he currently had no reason to expect another increase in 2027.
"I haven't changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike," Williams said, according to CNBC. He added: "I don't think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more." His comments describe a conditional individual outlook, not a commitment by the Federal Open Market Committee.
Williams said he expects inflation to decline substantially in 2027. He attributed that outlook to the fading effect of tariffs and to energy prices no longer adding to price pressures. In September 2026, he projected inflation at roughly 3.5% in 2026, just above 2% in 2027 and 2% in 2028, according to the New York Fed.
The federal funds target range is currently 3.75%-4.00%, following a 25-basis-point increase in September 2026. The September projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027, according to the Federal Reserve’s projections table. Those projections are the Fed’s official summary, not Williams’ individual forecast.
Williams said higher energy and commodity prices linked to geopolitical conflict and strong demand from artificial-intelligence investment remain inflation risks. He said he has not seen broader, persistent spillovers.
By the numbers
- 3.75%-4.00% - current federal funds target range
- 4.1% - median policy-rate projection for year-end 2026 and 2027
- 3.5% - Williams’ September 2026 inflation projection for 2026
Yes, but: Williams’ view is conditional on incoming inflation and employment data and does not determine the FOMC’s decision.
What's next: The FOMC is scheduled to meet October 27-28, 2026.