Delta lowered its 2026 profit forecast as higher fuel costs outweighed strong travel demand.
Why it matters: The update shows how higher energy costs can pressure airline profits even when fares and travel demand remain strong. Delta's pricing power and premium offerings are supporting revenue, but the company expects substantially higher fuel costs in 2026.
- Delta cut 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10-$5.60 from $6.50-$7.50 previously.
- The new guidance midpoint is $5.35, about 23.6% below the prior $7.00 midpoint.
- Delta said in its September-quarter SEC filing that 2026 fuel costs could be roughly $6 billion higher than in 2025.
- September-quarter revenue reached a record $17.6 billion, up 16% year over year, while capacity was flat.
Delta lowered its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast to $5.10-$5.60, from $6.50-$7.50 previously, in its September-quarter results filed with the SEC. Adjusted EPS is profit per share excluding specified items.
The midpoint fell to $5.35 from $7.00, a decline of about 23.6%. Delta said in that filing that it expects roughly $6 billion in additional fuel costs in 2026 compared with 2025.
Fuel expense rose 62% year over year to $4.1 billion in the September quarter. Delta's adjusted fuel price increased 60% to $3.61 per gallon, and the company expects an all-in price of approximately $4.25 per gallon in the December quarter. That estimate includes a refinery benefit of about $0.40 per gallon, meaning a reduction in the fuel price from Delta's refinery operations.
The forecast cut came despite strong operating trends. Delta reported September-quarter revenue of $17.6 billion, up 16% year over year. Revenue per unit of capacity, known as total unit revenue, rose 15%. Revenue from premium cabins and loyalty programs each increased 18%, according to Delta's investor-relations release.
Capacity was flat in the September quarter, meaning Delta's available seat capacity was unchanged from the comparison period. CEO Ed Bastian said demand remained strong and that travelers continued to favor experiences and travel.
Industry data also points to higher airline costs. A Reuters report republished by Investing.com said U.S. airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel in the first eight months of 2026, up $13.2 billion from the same period in 2025. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. airline fares rose 23.4% in August from a year earlier in its consumer-price data.
By the numbers
- $4.1 billion - Delta's September-quarter fuel expense, up 62% year over year
- $17.6 billion - September-quarter revenue, up 16% year over year
- 23.4% - Increase in U.S. airline fares in August from a year earlier, according to the BLS
Yes, but: Delta's $6 billion fuel-cost estimate comes from the company's own SEC filing. Reuters independently reported that U.S. airline fuel spending rose by $13.2 billion in the first eight months of 2026, but the dossier does not provide a separate industry fuel-price forecast.
What's next: Delta expects an all-in fuel price of approximately $4.25 per gallon in the December quarter, including the estimated refinery benefit.